The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has published its Macroeconomic Outlook for 2023. The analysis summarises economic developments in the Bank's member states in 2022. It provides key macroeconomic projections for the region's countries for 2023 and 2024.

According to the report, Armenia’s economic activity growth in January–September was driven mainly by the services sector and industry. Trade and construction also saw strong growth, with agricultural output showing positive trends. Strong demand in the country boosted the industry and services sectors following the peak of the tourist season and enhanced demand from non-residents. Construction surged due to constant growth in mortgage lending and stronger investment demand. Both exports and imports grew strongly throughout the year. The country also had an increase in trade with the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. Armenian exports to Russia grew thanks to restricting exports from other countries to Russia.

As predicted by the EDP, the baseline scenario assumes that Armenia’s GDP will increase by 4.2% in 2023, given the external demand factors, such as tourist flows to the country and exports to Russia. The inflation rate is expected to be 4.6 percent at the end of 2023. Price growth in Armenia is likely to slow down to 3.3% by the end of 2024, no longer affected by external inflationary pressure or unstable domestic and external demand.

The dollar exchange rate, which amounted to 395.92 drams as of November 28, is expected to average 438 drams in 2023.

Overall, unfavorable external conditions will lead to slower economic growth in Armenia in 2023, followed by an acceleration in 2024 as the global economy recovers.