On 14 April, the International Monetary Fund published their World Economic Outlook for the year 2020. 

“The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound—the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support,” read the forecast on the global economic situation.

“The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial. Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically. And internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channelling aid to countries with weak health care systems,” the report further emphasized.

According to the report, Armenia’s GDP is on course to shrink by 1.5% in 2020 as the global economy is entering a severe recession resulting from the coronavirus pandemic, but that it would grow to 4.8% in 2021.

As for Azerbaijan, the IMF forecasts a 2.2% reduction to the country’s GDP in 2020, and expects a 0.7% growth in the economy in 2021. 

Georgia’s GDP would be reduced by 4% in 2020, followed by a 3% growth in 2021.

A week earlier, the World Bank (WB) also published their economic update on Europe and Central Asia where it summarized the biggest economic challenges the South Caucasus countries would be facing (Caucasus Watch reported).